A fundamental premise of the nuclear revolution theory (TNR) is the claim of assured destruction—the ability of a state to retaliate with a nuclear second-strike that leads to the destruction of the adversary’s sociopolitical-economic-industrial infrastructure, denying it the to survive as a viable modern nation-state. However, as we enter an era of renewed strategic great power competition, emerging technological advances have reanimated questions about the continued relevance of TNR. Can a state employing emerging technologies significantly undermine the assured destruction capabilities of its adversary? Using insights and techniques from Self-Organized Criticality theory, Dr. Sankaran analytically reexamines and models the requirements for assured destruction. He demonstrates that the networked structure of critical infrastructures continues to make advanced industrial states extremely vulnerable to assured destruction—at a fraction of Cold War arsenal requirements. Dr. Sankaran also argues that advanced industrial nation-states remain vulnerable to assured destruction retaliatory strikes.

Dr. Jaganath “Jay” Sankaran, associate professor in the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at The University of Texas at Austin and non-resident fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, in conversation with BRSL’s Dr. Cameron Tracy.