Publications
The latest research and analysis from the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab
Wargaming Deception
A new report on using wargaming as a tool to analyze deception in the context of international security.
Hiroyasu Akutsu, Ruby Booth, Rex Brynen, Scott DeJong, Stephen Downes-Martin, Richard Garber, Mark Howard, Alex Karasick, Andrew Reddie
The LLM Mirage: Economic Interests and the Subversion of Weaponization Controls
LLM Mirage, the belief that national security risks scale in proportion to the compute used to train frontier language models, is shaping U.S. AI security policy. This piece unpacks why that belief may be misguided.
Ritwik Gupta, Andrew Reddie
The Key Challenges of Governing Commercial Spyware
Explaining key issues holding up progress in commercial spyware governance.
Dr. Elaine Korzak
Regulating Commercial Spyware Through Export Controls
Insights offered by the Wassenaar export controls into the regulation of commercial spyware — and why that, in turn, makes them instructive for current initiatives like the Pall Mall Process.
Dr. Elaine Korazak
The Illusion of Convergence: Interrogating China-Russia Nuclear Parallels
Understanding differences between the drivers of Russian and Chinese nuclear behavior can inform deterrence and escalation management.
Linda Bachg and Daniel Kroth.
Cybercrime gets an upgrade
Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the business of cybercrime.
Gil Baram, Leah Walker
New UN Permanent Mechanism on Cybersecurity is Saddled with Old Controversies
How the global mechanisms indicated in the 2021-2025 open-ended working group (OEWG)'s final report fall short — and why that hampers meaningful progress within the forum dedicated to this in the UN.
Building an AI Red Teaming Discipline
As commercial artificial intelligence models have become increasingly sophisticated, we need to build a discipline around red teaming tools, protocols, and red teamers themselves.
Leah Walker, Jake Hecla, Cara Marie Wagner, Andrew Reddie
RJISSF Policy Forum on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Emerging Technologies
How novel technologies impact nuclear proliferation or nonproliferation.
Editor: Diane Labrosse, Commissioning Editor: Jennifer L. Erickson, Production Editor: Christopher Ball, Pre-Production Copy Editor: Bethany S. Keenan
Between Power and Promise: The Evolution of U.S. Sanctions Strategy
Context for a broader chapter in the recent Oxford Handbook of Geoeconomics and Economic Statecraft, published with the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC).
The Double Power Law: How American Innovation Really Works
For nearly eight decades, the U.S. innovation ecosystem has been underpinned by a deliberately decentralized model of federal research support.
Jon Metzler and Andrew W. Reddie
New Economic Statecraft and Global Technology Conflicts: The Dilemma for Middle Powers.
"New econonmic statecraft" and how to understand strategic government interviention in the global political and economic competition landscape.
Vinod K. Aggarwal, Andrew W. Reddie